The War in China

(Concluded from the last issue)

IV

On the night of the 7th July two Japanese soldiers disappeared at Liukowchiao, and when a search was being made for them in prohibited areas, the Japanese troops were fired on by the Chinese. Almost at once Japanese forces were rushed to the spot from Fengtai and Langfang, and the whole of the Peiping-Tientsin area flared up in minor skirmishes. On the 19th General Sung Cheh-yuan, the Chinese President of the Hopei and Chahar Council, apologised for the ‘incident’; and the Chinese Foreign Office at Nanking presented to the Japanese authorities an aide-memoire declaring readiness to seek a pacific settlement, provided military movements were stopped. Tokyo answered on the 26th with an ultimatum, which both the General and the Nanking Government promptly rejected. It was evident that the Japanese military staff were acting with the precision and swiftness reminiscent of 1931. The ‘incident’ was only a signal which switched into operation a powerful military machine. The Chinese were caught unawares, having made no plans or preparations for defence. They were drawn, quietly and without notice, into a struggle for very existence.

The military objectives of the Japanese were, clearly, two. First, the strategic railway line from Peiping to Suiyuan was to be captured so that the Japanese Army could insure itself against a possible Outer Mongolian or Soviet intervention. Second, China’s spinal column, the Peiping-Hanko railway, was to be broken so that the way to the Yangtse valley would lie clear.

From the beginning of the war the movements of the Japanese units were calculated to attain these two primary ends. By the 18th of September the first of them was achieved. The Chinese troops were everywhere beaten on the North-Western front and routed in the Nankow pass. Kalgan was occupied, Tienchin was taken and Tatung stormed by assault. A Japanese government was established at Peiping, and an Inner Mongolian army, composed of princes and nobles who revolted against China, was despatched to capture Kewihua, the capital of Suiyuan.

Having secured their rear, the Japanese then turned southwards. On the 15th September they fought and won a pitched battle on a fifty-mile front in the plains of Hohan. They forded the Chuma by moonlight, and converged in a long curtain from Chochow and Pachow on Paotingfu, which they entered on the 24th. More victories followed in rapid succession. Tiehchieling fell on the 30th, and on October 3rd the strategic station of Chengtingfu was occupied. Here the Japanese Army divided into two wings, one piercing westward into the Shansi province, the other advancing eastwards into Shantung. The eastern thrust had already been so well greased by bribery and corruption that the Japanese marched quickly on Tehchow and sat astride the Grand canal leading to the Yellow river. In the west, they engaged the Chinese Red Army in a bloody conflict near Chunhsien, and pressed on towards Taiyuanfu, one of China’s largest arsenals. About the same time, in the north-west Kewihua fell, and a Mongol Government was proclaimed in Suiynan.

Meanwhile, the Japanese Navy began to pound at the commercial heart of China, Shanghai, so that China could be engaged on two fronts at once. The shooting of a Japanese sailor, who was caught tampering with a wireless station, was made the ostensible reason for the concentration of twenty warships at Woosung. 50,000 men were landed, and immediately brought into action. By the end of October they had captured, in spite of incredible bravery on the part of the Chinese, all the coastal fortresses. And they are now pouring, at the time of writing, into Soochow creek.

Thus, in less than three months of beginning operations, the Japanese had advanced over 150 miles in every direction in Northern China, and were pressing hot on Shanghai. Their plan of campaign has been the classic one of pitched battles, sieges and conquests. Their strength has lain in massed movements and long encircling flank attacks. Everywhere the fighting has been marked by ruthlessness–savage street-fighting, short-range sniping and scuffles between hand-grenadiers. But the Japanese have shown themselves adepts also in combining the methods of medieval mercilessness with those of modern barbarism. Like Germany in Spain, and Italy in Abyssinia, they have not stopped at anything in trying to break the morale of the Chinese and splintering their opposition. Germany had destroyed Guernica within the space of a few hours; now the Japanese ‘planes zoomed over Nanking, Canton and Hankow in the third week of September, dealing death and destruction, leaving behind them mangled bodies and burning houses. But it was on the 27th that the Japanese really excelled themselves. One of their submarines rose to the surface at Cheelongkau, near Hongkong, systematically machine-gunned a whole fleet of fishing junks and sank out of sight, leaving the 300 victims to struggle in the water or be picked up by the passing Scharnhorst.

Nor has Japan been any less modern in her diplomatic utterances. While her military were making hay of China’s resistance, her statesmen were proclaiming with unimpeachable suavity their ‘pacific’ intentions–a suavity and a pacificism equaled only by Mussolini when he carried out his conquest of Abyssinia. On the 27th July when troops were being poured into Northern China, Hirota, the Japanese Foreign Minister, said, "Japan’s national policy is aimed at securing Japan’s position in Eastern Asia and at contributing towards the establishment of peace in the world." On the 9th of August, Japan demanded ‘a fundamental solution,’ the basis of which was to be that China should join the German-Japanese anti-Communist Agreement; meanwhile, war credits were voted in Tokyo to the extent of £ 30,410,000. Later, the Japanese Premier, Konoe, declared that China must be ‘beaten to her knees,’ and spoke of ‘harmony through mutual co-operation for the stabilisation of the Orient’ but the war budget rose to £ 121,400,000. On the 25th September ‘a change of atmosphere’ was welcomed by Japan; on the 27th the fishing fleet was wiped off the surface of the sea; Apparently, even the theory of the preventive war could become a fine art in Japanese hands.

But whatever the Japanese methods, China has become a vast panorama of horror. To her, the war has been a tale of unspeakable misery, of disaster following upon disaster. She has nearly 2.5 million men under arms, but hardly any equipment. Lack of organisation, lack of material and mechanisation have been her bane. Even the famous Air Force built up at Hang-chow has not made its mark up to now. But, under the shock of invasion, China has closed up its ranks and become one, determined to resist to the last ditch. For the first time in her history, Chinese war-lords are co-operating one with another. General Pai Chung-Hsi and General Fah-Kuei, both of them veteran leaders of Southern China and former opponents of the Generalissimo, have now been appointed to the command of the Northern and Kiangsu forces respectively. The Red Governments in Shensi and Hupeh have dissolved themselves, and the Red Armies under Mao Tze-Tung are fighting like the Regular troops. A United Front has been formed with the specific object of stopping the invader in his murderous course. China has also concluded a Sino-Soviet pact of non-aggression, and has invited Japan to adhere to it. She has raised a huge Liberty loan at home; and abroad, she has obtained some credits in democratic countries, including a £ 10 million contract for armaments from Skoda. The morale of her troops has been surprisingly superb. Every section of the community is prepared to suffer to the utmost. Chinese merchants abroad are desperately trying to send home funds and materials. When Chiang Kai-Shek said on October 11, "I am determined to lead the nation in a fight to the last man," he was only speaking the stark truth.

But the strategic position of China has gradually been worsening. If Taiyuanfu falls, she will lose one of her biggest armaments stores. If the Japanese proceed to declare a regular economic blockade, China’s Customs revenues would seriously be affected, and the Government would be brought to the verge of bankruptcy. Her inland trade with Inner Mongolia has already been cut off, and the indiscriminate bombing of the enemy planes has played havoc with Chinese life and property. China, thus, depends in large measure on foreign aid of some sort or other. She has strictly kept within the limits of the law, so that none of the democratic States could find fault with her conduct. Apart from the massacre of refugees at Tungchow early in the war, Chinese troops have behaved, under the circumstances, with a restraint and a courage beyond praise. But unless some action is taken by the Powers, the invader will consolidate his position and plant his feet firmly in the north. The war itself may deteriorate into a war of attrition, but the strategic position will not immediately be altered.

V

Is there, then, any possibility of the Powers intervening? What have the Powers done and what can they do?

The U. S. A. has refused to apply the Neutrality Act, although she has stopped the shipment of arms to either of the belligerents. She is prepared to take action in conjunction with the other Powers. On the 6th of October the U. S. A. State Department issued a statement that Japan had violated the Nine-Power Treaty and that her action in China constituted an act of aggression. Great Britain has protested against the shooting of her ambassador. Public opinion in England has been roused as it has not been roused since the days of the Abyssinian crisis. The idealism of the Left has combined with the interests of the Right in calling upon the Government to move in the Far East. Russia is anxiously watching Japan’s next move, and has liquidated the unreliable elements in her Siberian Army. But nowhere has there been talk of collective action, no hint of any intention to restrain Japan. On the 5th October the League condemned Japan as the aggressor but prescribed individual, not collective, action. None of the Powers seem willing to take the initiative in any manner. A Far Eastern conference has been summoned to meet at Brussels, but it has been unconscionably long a-meeting. On the other hand, in Germany and Italy, the tone in the public press has been rising to a scream against Communism in China. Germany has refuse4 to attend the Brussels conference; Italy has promised to join the German-Japanese Agreement.

But what can the Powers actually do? How can Japan be stopped? There is every reason to believe that if Great Britain and the U. S. A. took a firm line, Japan would even yet hesitate and retire. A withdrawal of ambassadors would have a tremendous moral effect, as Japan is still sensitive to American and British opinion. A joint naval demonstration by Britain and the U. S. A. coupled with a Russian mobilisation on the Manchukuan frontier would arrest Japan in her progress. And an economic blockade would make her position at home untenable.

But it is not necessary to go to such lengths. It may not even be necessary to proclaim a comprehensive boycott of Japanese goods, as has been urged by some. A mineral embargo, we suggest, would be sufficient to throttle Japan’s war supplies and exhaust her in a year. Japan is singularly deficient in aluminum, antimony, cadmium, lead, iron and tungsten–all essential for the making of armaments. Her oil supplies plus the six months’ storage, which the foreign companies are by law required to hold in Japan, would not sustain protracted campaigns. If Australia, India and Malaya who supply her with iron, and the U. S. A. who supplies her with oil, stop their exports, Japan will be in sore straits. If the British Empire and the U. S. A., who together take 50% of Japan’s exports and account for 62% of her imports, decide to apply the mineral sanction, Japan will be forced to make ‘a showdown.’ Thus it will not be necessary to bring the cumbrous machinery of the League into operation; an agreement among two or three Powers would be enough. Moreover, Japan could be ‘frozen out’ even if she relied on her accumulated stocks of minerals, especially because she has no first-class engineering equipment. Finally, the embargo would not interfere with the ordinary commercial and financial transactions; it would thus minimise the risks of war. The embargo was tried with success in the Gran-Chaco dispute. There is no reason why the Powers should not impose it upon Japan.

Japan is really incapable of standing a long war. She has never come into conflict with any first class modern nation; if she does, her bubble reputation for strength would be burst in a moment. Her man-power and her economic system would be severely taxed. Her total estimated revenues in 1936 were 13 milliard yen; her National Debt 19 milliards; her loans 965 millions. Her war budget for 1937-38 is 4 millions; and it is calculated that 2.5 millions would be required for a short war, and over 5 milliards for a long one. It is difficult to see how these moneys can be furnished except at the cost of lower wages. But prices have begun to rise, and the hardships of the poorer people have steadily been increasing. There were over 2,000 cases of strikes in 1936. If the present war ends in failure or is unduly prolonged, there will be grave industrial and agrarian unrest in Japan. It is significant that already there are rumours of growing divisions among the governing class over the wisdom of the present Chinese adventure.

Japan’s safety, therefore, resides in her speed and in her ability to deal a crushing blow. If she fails to do that, she will totter. She has given swift and hard knocks, but the tempo of the war is slowing down. If she fails to capture more key positions this winter, she may be reduced to concluding a truce before long. It is, then, by no means too late for the Powers to take action. But no such action seems to be forthcoming. Even the boycott of Japanese exports is still in the realm of debate and has nowhere been enforced. The Brussels conference, when it meets, will turn out to be, like the non-intervention committee, another essay in futility. For when it comes to the point, no Power is willing to move. America will not act unilaterally; and Great Britain is playing for position in Europe where the problem of Spain has not yet been solved.

It is interesting to analyse the Times editorials as illustrating the attitude of a certain section, the most powerful section, of the Right-wing in England. On the 14th August the Times made the significant remark that, "the status quo in North China had been disturbed and would not be restored–not at least for a century or two." On the 27th when British interests were known to be in jeopardy in Shanghai, it said, "it is high time for Japan to learn that a free hand, which she desires in East Asia, will in no circumstances include licence to play havoc with the lawful interests of Great Britain." Over the destruction of the fishing fleet the Times wrote a famous editorial entitled ‘Frightfulness.’ But the moment action of some sort was mooted, the Times changed tack. It made no reference to the correspondence it published over the question of boycott, and at last wrote: "Any government, which embarks on sanctions, must be prepared for the interpretation of such a step as a hostile act–must, in other words, be prepared to fight a war,"–as if Japan would have the temerity to fight England and America, and possibly Russia, all at once!

Nor is there any certainty that the U. S. A., in spite of the brave speeches of her President, would be prepared to impose even a mineral embargo. There are powerful vested interests which are loth to lose the valuable trade with Japan. And the President, if anything, is amenable to the influence of Big Business.

Japan, then, will not be faced immediately with the bogey of sanctions, and she knows it. As always, she has chosen her moment well. Time and again she has gambled on the inaction of the Powers, and time and again she has won. China may resist long, but Japan, we fear, is certain finally to get away with a fait accompli –a Mongoukuo–in North China.

But Japan is laying up dynamite for the future. Unless Europe resurrects the League, and Great Britain realises that the price of Empire is universal vigilance, Japan will go on from one step to another. Her next move will probably be westwards. Outer Mongolia is fast deteriorating into a Belgium of the Far East. And the moment she is invaded, perhaps German guns will also thud simultaneously in Soviet Ukraine. The world’s next Great War would have begun.