The Political Scene

Now that the country is preparing for the polls to the Lok Sabha and the State Assemblies of Assam, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, West Bengal and Haryana and the Union Territory of Pondicherry this quarter’s political analysis will be confined to the electoral scene as obtaining at the time of writing. The question that is uppermost in the minds of all citizens is whether the Congress (I) will come to power at the Centre. While it is difficult to hazard a guess what can be said with certainty is that even the Opposition parties have position to present a viable alternative to the Congress (l). Thus the Congress (0 starts with an advantage and how exactly it will convert this into votes will be watched with great interest. The plan of the article is first to give a general picture and then go on to some specifics as for instance the position in Kashmir. In Anmachal Pradesh there is a threat of boycott of the poll while in Uttar Pradesh the people of Uttarakhand are not willing to participate in the elections to the four Lok Sabha seats. There is a brief survey of the status of the Janata Dal in U.P. which returns 85 members to the Lok Sabha. With less than a month for the general elections to the Lok Sabha and five State Assemblies and one Union Territory, political parties are stepping up their campaign even as the poll manifestos of important parties have been released. The efforts to forge viable electoral combinations have more or less reached a final stage although one could discern streaks of dissatisfaction with personal animosities getting the better of even real politik. The ruling Congress (I) at the Centre and its main rivals - the BJP and the Janata Dal - led National Front - have almost completed the process of selecting their candidates and since nominations close on April 3 ­actually the number of days available has been cut short owing to some holidays - party leaders are working overtime. What distinguishes the election of 1996 is the total absence of what had come to be known as the Nehru-­Gandhi style of leadership which relied heavily on individual charisma, populist measures and absolute personal loyalty to the leader. The Prime Minister, Mr. P. V. Narasimha Rao, enjoys almost no mass base and yet he has been able to make an impression by stressing that there is a Lakshmana rekha for vote bank politics. On the other hand, the BJP has suffered on erosion of credibility during recent months thanks to the ugly developments in Gujarat where the party is holding power. The constitutional mandate is a secular-democracy with every citizen free to propagate the religion of his or her choice provided there is no infringement of the rights of others. Abuse of religion or political purposes is ‘not permitted and yet’ the Sangh Parivar was know to have carried things to excess by its campaign of hatred and intolerance when the occasion presented itself. The Janata Dal is a pale shadow of what it was in 1991 and its alliance with the Samajwadi Party in Uttar Pradesh from where the largest contingent of 85 for any State is sent to the Lok Sabha typifies its fallen strength. It is going to contest only 16 seats while the party’s position is slightly better in Bihar, more because the party happens to be in power under the leadership of Mr. Laloo Prasad. The Leftist parties are confined to select pockets and all in all the picture is one of great uncertainty right now. Mr. Arjun Singh and Mr. N.D. Tiwari aided and abetted by people like Mr. M. L. Fotedar who have no roots anywhere and helped by some Rajiv loyalists have set up a new organisation to fight the elections but its impact judged by its strength could well be nothing. The national parties will no doubt have to reckon with the presence of powerful regional leaders and even as the battle lines of the forthcoming elections are drawn, while corruption and political ineptitude might provide the trimming, the actual contest will be among the competing principles of federalism and centralism - examples of which are the Akali Dal in Punjab, AGP in Assam, the Dravidian Parties in Tamil Nadu and the Telugu Desam in Andhra Pradesh. It is pity that the National Conference under the leadership of Mr. Farooq Abdullah who has been asking for a return of the pre ­1953 position in Kashmir. (again an illustration of State autonomy demand) has decided not to contest the poll to the Lok Sabha in Jammu and Kashmir. It is this kind of negative attitude that will not help in restoring popular rule in the tormented State. Dr. Farooq Abdullah could have taken a more reasoned stand and establish his credentials as a leader with a following and thus set an example to the others. The electoral picture is not rosy everywhere as, for instance, in the hill districts of Uttar Pradesh where the people seem to be against elections for the four Lok Sabha seats until their demand or a separate Uttarkhand is conceded. The Election Commission had drawn up the poll schedule and a model code of conduct keeping all important political factors in mind. There is a slight variation of dates in Kashmir where the poll will end on May 30. But there is no ease for stopping counting as planned even if the results could be announced after the poll had been completed in Kashmir. Keeping ballot boxes safe is a big hazard and the risk is not worth taking.

It was expected even when the Government had announced that elections to the Lok Sabha would be held in Jammu and Kashmir along with the rest of the country that pro-Pakistani elements and the militants thriving with the patronage extended to them by the hostile neighbour will create disturbances right from now if only to put obstacles in the way of a peaceful conduct of the democratic exercise. The security forces had, therefore, strengthened their vigilance apparatus, the results of which could be seen from the fact that pro-Pakistani desperados who had gathered at the famous Hazaratbal shrine were intercepted, and in the ensuring gunfire atleast one important militant stated to be some sort of a military adviser was killed. Even the JKLF which has been claiming to be an independent body, not under the control of Pakistan, has started giving trouble the moment elections were announced. This is surprising in the context of the Government’s declared intention to open a dialogue with the militant leaders to whatever section they belonged in a bid to find a lasting solution to the Kashmir problem. The JKLF activists too were trying to enter the Hazaratbal shrine to create the kind of ugly situation that arose over three years ago but their attempts were totally foiled by the Special Operational Group of Jammu and Kashmir Police but not before seven militants were killed.

This is a serious blow to the JKLF which must realise that the Government is determined to curb militancy at any cost. All this is unfortunate especially when a fresh opportunity was being given to the people of the state to assert their democratic right to elect their representatives to the national Parliament. It is indeed for the more organised militant groups like the JKLF to come out in the open and subscribe to the democratic path and show the outside world the support they have within the State. Yet the face of the matter is that the people of the tormented State are fed up with the activities of the extremists, and outfits like the JKLF do feel that they will not get any support from the electorate. The more hard-core militants have spoiled their case sufficiently in the eyes of the population. There was a time when the Mirwaiz could speak with the authority of a religious leader but there are now serious doubts whether he could mobilise the Valley to a recognisable extent. All this leads to the inevitable conclusion that it is the political parties, including the National Conference, that must try to mobilise public opinion to ensure that the Lok Sabha polls are not disturbed.

Of course the security forces are going to be deployed in full strength to ensure that all those who are desirous of voting are able to exercise their franchise without fear. For the Government the successful conduct of the polls to the Lok Sabha is extremely important in as much as on it depends its next move to hold elections to the State Assembly. It is easy to dub the Government’s efforts as a calculated move to install an elected Government, furnish it with extraordinary powers in the belief that armed action under democratic cover will restore normality. But this kind of political cynicism may not be warranted especially in the context of the genuine efforts being made to end the President’s rule before the current term expires in July. It is just now that the Government is being seen to have a coherent, pragmatic policy on Kashmir and the Prime Minister, Mr. P.V. Narsimha Rao, should address the particular problem of winning over leaders to hold talks and thus clinch the issue that has been evading a solution for too long. Dr. Farooq Abdullah and his colleagues in the National Conference are no more in a position to doubt the true intentions of the Government which of late has been adopting a flexible approach to the grievances in the Valley. Pakistan’s reaction to the holding of elections in Kashmir is on expected lines and this should not deter the Government from pursuing the patriot has chosen. The overall strategy of the Government is definitely positive based on the assumption that the situation is now not hopeless.

A serious situation is developing in the remote north-east State of Arunachal Pradesh following the demand of all the parties, including the ruling Congress (I) that the Centre should come out with a decision on the Chakma and Hajong refugees immediately. They have warned that if the problem is not settled to their satisfaction they would boycott the coming polls to the Lok Sabha from the State. That the ruling Congress (I) Chief Minister, Mr. Gegong Apang, is also a party to the decision indicates that the matter is not a party issue and the demand is universal transcending all political barriers. The Centre is fully aware of the developments in the sensitive State but has so far not cared to intervene effectively. Nor has it persuaded the Chief Minister not to take up an extreme position as the problem at issue does not admit of any easy solution and it has wide ramifications which have to be taken note of before a final decision could be taken.

At one time tempers ran so high that all the 60 members of the State Assembly decided to quit but better sense seems to have prevailed and they did not take the extreme step. Mr. Apang is no novice to Government and his major qualification for enjoying the Centre’s confidence is the apparent distinction he shares with Mr. Jyoti Basu as the longest serving Chief Minister in the North East. An astute politician, he not only sailed through unscathed during the brief tenure of Mr. V. P. Singh as Prime Minister but also enhanced his reputation by destroying the State unit of the Janata Dal following which all the seven members of the party joined the Congress (I). For quite some time there has been a vigorous agitation that the Chakmas who had come from the erstwhile East Pakistan - in fact they were rehabilitated in the former NEF A now known as Arunachal Pradesh by the Centre - should be dispersed to the other States or even sent to Bangladesh. The united Liberation Volunteers of Arunachal and the United People’s Volunteers of Arunachal, both devoid of ideology, have been working for the ouster of the Chakmas and the growing unemployment in the State has forced many young persons to join these outfits. In the beginning no notice was taken of their activities but soon enough they had become so aggressive that the Government had to intervene.

The Chakmas were settled in the mid-sixties in the Lohit, Changlang and Lower Subansiri areas and it is now the third generation of Chakmas that could be seen in the State. The problem of Chakmas in Tripura is, however of recent origin, comparatively speaking, and they have all along been in transit camps and efforts are being taken to send them to the Chittagong Hill Tracts from where they had originally migrated. But the Chakmas in Arunachal Pradesh have over the years become natives of Arunachal Pradesh as it were and it would be next to impossible to drive them out at this stage. However all the political parties had made the Chakma problem an election issue during the poll to the State Assembly and the Chief Minister too is committed to forcing them out of the State. The politicians of the State have charged the Centre of indifference and apathy to the feelings of the indigenous people and had even charged that it had taken a pro-Chakma stand. An all party resolution last week said that the failure of the Central government to solve the issue has provoked the people to such an extent that it would not be possible for any party to participate in the coming elections. The Supreme Court had only recently warned the State Government that any lapse on its part to protect the Chakmas would not be tolerated. It is now for the Centre to make some quick moves to avert a Simbou which could well turn out to unparalled in the annals of electoral politics in the country.

All eyes are on Uttar Pradesh considering that the State returns 85 members to the Lok Sabha and, precisely for this reason, the Janata Dal has worked hard to forge an alliance with the Samajwadi Party which is fast turning out to be an important political outfit in the State. For the Janata Dal which itself is splintered after the formation of the Samata Party which took away 14 of its 44 members in the Lok Sabha it has been a question of life and death and although it had the option to enter into an alliance with the Bahujan Samaj Party of Mr. Kanshi Ram it has decided to seek a poll pact with the Samajwadi Party led by Mr. Mulayam Singh Yadav. The Janata Dal obviously thinks that the Congress (I) is not a formidable foe in Uttar Pradesh. The desertion of Mr. N. D. Tiwari from the Congress (I) has doubtless weakened the party by providing him with an emotional handle but the general view seems to be that Mr. Tiwari’s stirrings were a fallout of the Congress (I) is own squabbles and a cover for challenging the Prime Minister. The State Congress (I) is splintered into innumerable factions and mired in personality clashes and following the exit of Mr. Tiwari and his colleagues the confusion had become unbearable for the party workers.

In the last several months nothing has been done to revitalise the Congress (I) in U.P. which at one time was the bastion of the Congress (I). The split between the BSP and the Samajwadi Party of Mr. Mulayam Singh Yadav has come in handy for the Janata Dal to fish in troubled waters and it goes to the credit of the Janata Dal leaders who ultimately succeeded in bringing the Samajwadi Party closer to their party. Of course seat adjustments are going to provide some anxious moments for both the parties but as the Janata Dal is aiming to forge an alternative to the Congress (I) at the Centre it could be expected to adopt a policy of give and take in a big way without jeopardising its own chances. The Janata Dal still forms the major constituent of the National Front and the next step will be to give shape to a National Front-Left combine. The Chief Minister of Bihar, Mr. Laloo Prasad Yadav, who at one time scoffed at the very idea of making up with Mr. Mulayam Singh Yadav has finally yielded to pressure from his senior colleagues. With the BSP leader dead against Mr. Mulayam Singh Yadav, there was no way of roping his party into the alliance sponsored by the Janata Dal and for the time bieing the Dal will have to stick to the Samajwadi Party in Uttar Pradesh.

7-4-1996