Population Growth, Economic Development and Family Planning in India

POPULATION GROWTH, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

AND FAMILY PLANNING IN INDIA

Director, Indian Institute for Population Studies, Madras

India’s tenth decennial census, and the second since Independence, completed in 1961, yielded a provisional total of 438 million. That is, India has added 77.26 million to her population and registered a 21.49 per cent increase during the last decade, as against the 42.6 million addition and 14.1 per cent increase between 1941 and 1951. That India has added in a decade more than the population of any European country (with the exception of the Soviet Union) or North or South American country (with the exception of the United States) and that this number is more than what the planners had expected and feared, call for far-reaching changes in our economic and social plans and policies.

Apart from the massive size of the total population and the alarming rate of its growth, a striking feature is the heterogeneous increase of population in the various States. The percentages of increase in the States during the last decade cover a wide range, from 34.30 in Assam and 32.94 in West Bengal down to 11.73 in Madras.

What are the factors behind this tremendous and unwelcome increase? To begin with, India in 1951 had a large population, and even a small rate of increase would have yielded an impressive decennial addition. But the rate of increase of 21.5 per cent is not small, and the increase of 77 million is unexpected. Any detailed and valid explanation of the decennial increase must await a more detailed analysis of the census returns, and, what is more, a satisfactory explanation will be possible only if reliable birth and death rates are available for the period. Vital statistics in India are still unreliable.

However, an explanation of the country’s population growth has to be sought in the nation’s birth and death rates. If the birth-rate is assumed to have been stationary, the death-rate would have had to decline from 27 per 1,000 in 1951 to less than 19 per 1,000 during the decade 1951-61 to yield an increase of 21.5 per cent for the same period. Hence it is possible to suppose that there has been not only no decline in the nation’s fertility but, if anything, an increase. Obviously the nation’s efforts to popularise family planning have not yet been successful for the country as a whole. It is true that for the first 10 years after Independence (1947-57) the question of family planning received little impetus.

As for the death-rate, the available evidence shows a definite decline. The death-rate has declined from 31.2 per 1,000 (1931-41) to 21.6 (1956-61). The infant mortality rate (based on incomplete data) has fallen from 123 per 1,000 live births in 1951 to 98 in 1959. The official figures may not be exact, but the declining trend is obvious in the general death-rate and its age and sex components. On the other hand, the expectation of life at birth has increased from 32 in 1951 to 42 in 1961.

Two other major improvements are responsible for India’s population growth. There has been no famine during the last 15 years. There is still malnutrition and undernutrition, but famine with all its rigours is a thing of the past. India has received food-grains from many countries, particularly the U. S., and the per capita consumption of food is, if anything, higher today than it was a decade ago. Secondly, incredible as it may sound, malaria has been almost wiped out. In the past the number of people who suffered from malaria and the number who died from it every year, ran into some eighty million and a million respectively.

If anything, with progress in preventive measures and with more medical institutions and medical personnel of all kinds, and help from the WHO, Colombo Plan, etc., India is bound to register a further decline in her infant, maternal and over-all death-rates.

The real question before India is whether this formidable increase in numbers has helped or hindered the economic development of the country. Population numbers by themselves may mean nothing. But population trends and economic development are closely interrelated and each is a determinant and consequence of the other.

The population factor–which includes the size of population, the rate of growth, age and sex composition, and fertility and mortality rates–has a direct bearing upon the development factor–which includes the resources to be spent on supporting the population at a certain level of living, the size and possible employment of the labour force, the rate of current consumption and saving available for investment, etc.

It is difficult to construct a single and precise index of economic development for the country for such a short period as a decade. In India reliable and comparable statistical data on various sectors of economic development during the last decade are not available. The national income is perhaps the most reliable single composite index of economic development. During the first Five-Year Plan (1951-6) the country registered considerable progress in the agricultural sector and the total national income increased by 18 per cent over the figure for 1951. At the end of the second Five-Year Plan (1956-61) the national income had increased by 20 per cent over the figure for 1956.

The population increased during this period at an annual rate of 2.15 per cent over the 1951 population figures, whereas the increase in national income was 4.2 per cent over the 1950–1 income figure at constant prices. The per capita annual income was Rs. 246 in 1951 and it increased to Rs. 286 in 1961, in terms of 1948–9 prices. This works out at an increase of 14 per cent during the 10 years as against the 20 per cent increase envisaged by the Planning Commission because of the commission’s underestimate of population growth.

The record of agricultural production in India during the past 10 years has been impressive. The total production of food-grains in 1949–50 was 54,000,000 tons. The preliminary estimates for 1960–1 show that an all-time peak of 77,000,000 tons of food- grains has been reached at the end of the second plan period. Thus there has been an increase of nearly 38 per cent in food production during the period 1951-61, while the increase in population was 21.5 per cent. Most of the States have increased their food production at a rate faster than their population.

As for the pattern of consumption, recent family budget surveys, show that generally 50 to 70 per cent of the total expenditure of the average family is on food, the important components being cereals and pulses. The net availability of cereals and pulses for consumption has been steadily increasing during the last 10 years. As against a total of 13 ounces of cereals and pulses per capita per day in 1951, the corresponding amount available in 1959 was 16 ounces. While the calorie and protein content of the diet of an average Indian is still very low, the position has improved during the last 10 years.

Has India’s economic progress kept pace with her population growth? Has the level of living of the average Indian risen at least a little, if not substantially? How much of a barrier has the high decennial addition proved to be?

In spite of lack of adequate statistical data, it is obvious, judging from the trends of agricultural and industrial production, that the decade has witnessed significant economic improvement. An upward trend is visible in almost every sector of the economy. There is no doubt that the level of living of the average Indian family has gone up in terms of the basic requisites of decent human existence. The economy of chronic shortages is being gradually transformed into an economy of near-self-sufficiency, although it is still a long way from affluence even according to Indian standards.

But the major question still is whether it would not have been possible to attain even higher levels of living had the growth of population been at a lower rate. The answer is in the affirmative. Had we added about 38 million, or about half the actual increase, more families would have received more amenities.

It can of course be argued that this great increase in population is itself an index of the over-all improvement in India’s level of living. Theoretically all populations, particularly in underdeveloped countries, increase in numbers in response to the slightest improvement in the conditions of life. This increase is bound to go on for some years until the level of living becomes high and sustained, and then the population numbers are likely to be stabilised at a fairly high level of living. This is apparently what is happening in India. Therefore, the next pertinent question is whether the country can afford to support at a higher level of living five hundred and more millions by 1971.

Thus, India’s present demographic dilemma of registering substantial population increases, may continue for some decades as the economy’s productivity increases. This dilemma can be resolved only by massive economic aid from abroad and a radical cut in the birth-rate through bonuses for family limitation.

As for family planning all the available experience during the last ten years, in various parts of the country, and particularly in rural areas, shows that conventional contraceptives (like diaphragm and jelly) are not very successful. Normally, a contraceptive should be safe, harmless, reliable, cheap, effective and acceptable to the cultural milieu of a people. But in India we have to add one more qualification. It should be good for numerous exposures. The only answer to meet this demand is sterilization–the method of permanent conception control.

In conclusion, it is interesting to recall what Mahatma Gandhi said about voluntary sterilization. Gandhi pointed out, “I consider it inhuman to impose sterilization law on the people. But in case of individuals with chronic diseases, it is desirable to have them sterilized if they are agreeable to it. Sterilization is a sort of contraceptive, and though I am against the use of contraceptives in case of women, I do not mind voluntary sterilization in case of man since he is the aggressor.” (Amrita Bazar Patrika, 12th January 1935)

To Mahatmaji, voluntary sterilization was an answer to “chronic disease”. In India poverty can be considered a chronic disease, and sterilization can contribute to its cure.