International Affairs: A Survey

BY Prof. M. VENKATARANGAIYA, M. A.

The establishment of the Communist regime in China, and the news that Russia is manufacturing large numbers of atom bombs and that the United States has begun the manufacture of the Hydrogen bomb, are the outstanding events of the quarter. The world situation has consequently become much more critical now than what it was three or four months ago. The gulf separating the Soviet from the United States has become wider. Almost every country is faced with new problems of security and defence. Fear has taken a deeper root in the minds of men and the feeling of uncertainty is more widespread.

The establishment of the Communist regime in China is perhaps a much more epoch-making event than even the Bolshevik revolution in Soviet Russia in 1917. This is due to the fact that China has a population of more than four hundred millions. Her natural resources are vast and they have not been so far exploited. She possesses a lengthy coast line and numerous sea-ports and harbours. These by themselves would not have had any significance, for, these advantages China possessed at all times. There is, however, one important feature in the new situation which is sure to affect the future of the World. It is the treaty of friendship that the Communist government of China has concluded with Soviet. Russia. At one time it was thought that no such alliance would be possible as the Chinese are intensely nationalist and bitterly hate all outsiders. It was even prophesied that the dictator of China would become another Tito and follow a line of policy quite independent of Soviet Russia. But these anticipations and prophesies have been proved to be false. A thirty years treaty is now concluded between the two leading Communist states. It provides for mutual military and other support and assistance in the event of either party being attacked by Japan or States in alliance with it. In the context of world politics today, America is the most important of these States. In return for this promise of Chinese support Russia has agreed to give up her control over the Manchurian railway and over Port Arthur and Port Dalny within two years, to return to China the Japanese economic assets and lend her about 300 million dollars to buy capital goods. The economic aid is not much but all these terms have a political and prestige value of a substantial character. In her turn China has recognised the independence of outer Mongolia. The real importance of the treaty lies not so much in these specific terms as in the possibilities which lie latent in it, of one of the most extensive ideological empires coming into existence and leading to unprecedented external wars and internal revolutions. The treaty is a great diplomatic triumph for Russia. In the cold war which she has been waging with the United States this is a decisive victory. She has secured two special advantages as a consequence of this. The man-power of China is now at her disposal. Millions of Chinese can now be taken to Russia to work in factories and agricultural farms, and in transport industries. And Chinese labour is proverbially cheap. In addition to this she will have five to ten million Chinese soldiers ready to fight her battles in the Far East while she is busy conquering Western Europe in any future war. This is a distinct military advantage. Besides this there  is the whole coast of China. For the last two hundred and fifty years Russia has been in search of ice-free ports which would give her access to all the oceans. Now that China has become her ally, her objective is gained. For a long time to come the alliance between Russia and China is bound to be an alliance between unequal partners. China has to depend on Russia for technical equipment and skill. Her economy will have to be complementary to that of Russia and the latter can, therefore, be sure of obtaining naval supremacy in the Western Pacific. One should not forget in this connection that all this area from the Baltic to the Pacific is one single land mass within which armies can move freely. It is said that the United States invested two billion dollars with a view to bolster up Chiang-Kai-Shek and strengthen her influence over China. All this has been wasted. And Russia has been able to secure her triumph without expending anything, either in the shape of men or of materials.

This treaty is of great significance from another standpoint also. Communism is the most militant force in the world today, and Soviet Russia is as enthusiastic in spreading it over the whole world as the French revolutionaries of the late eighteenth century were in spreading their doctrines of liberty, equality and fraternity. It was on the basis of these slogans that Napolean conquered nearly the whole of Europe and this is just what Stalin is attempting to do at present. The only difference is that while Napoleon’s ambition was restricted to Europe and certain portions of Asia and Africa, it is the objective of Stalin to conquer the whole world. There were masses of people in European countries who welcomed Napoleon as the messenger of liberty and equality. The same is what is taking place in several parts of the world. And in this process of world conquest for Communism, Russia is now sure of getting the active help of China. This help is invaluable to her in the immediate future as it would enable her to dominate the whole of South-East Asia.

All the world is now focussing its attention on the countries in this region–on Indonesia, Siam, Malaya and Burma. This is an area where the masses of people suffer from acute poverty. Their standard of life is low. But this had not been their lot at all times. They remember that in an earlier age they were highly prosperous and that it is only with the coming of the Europeans in the sixteenth century that all their prosperity was lost. To them Communism makes a powerful emotional appeal. Any attempt, therefore, on the part of the new Chinese government, now under the influence of Soviet Russia to extend Communism into these countries is sure to receive a welcome at the hands of the people. Besides this it has to be noted that in very many of these countries–especially Siam and Malaya–there is a large Chinese population. Much of the trade and business is in their hands. Though they have been residents of these countries for several generations, they continue to look upon China as their Fatherland they are naturally interested in seeing that these countries are brought into the sphere of Sino-Soviet influence. Most of the communist cells in this area are dominated by the Chinese and this makes them all the more dangerous. One should also remember that in this part of the world the people are carrying on a struggle for national freedom against European Colonial powers like France, Britain and Holland. The Chinese government will take advantage of this and intervene–if it wants to intervene–as a liberator of dependent people.

The first step in this direction was taken when Soviet Russia, China and the Communist States of Central and Eastern Europe recognized recently the government of Ho-Chi-Minh in Vietnam in opposition to that of the ex-emperor Bao-dai who has been set up by the French. Chinese military help to Ho-Chi Minh is sure to intensify the civil war in Indo-China. The Russians do not seem to mind this. It is just what they want. This is the reason why they paid no heed whatever to the French protests in the matter of recognition, even though France and Russia have a treaty of alliance between them. As a reply to Soviet recognition of Ho-Chi-Minh, Britain and the United States have recognised the government of Bao-dai. There has been a conference at Bangkok, the capital of Siam, of all the diplomats of the United States in South-East Asia under the direction of Dr. Jessup, the personal envoy of President Truman–a conference at which there was a stock-taking of the international situation in this part of the world. From the various statements made by Dr. Jessup and also by President Truman and Dean Acheson, there appears to be a re-orientation in the foreign policy of the United States. There is now a talk of concentrating the American fleet in the Asiatic side of the Pacific. The United States is also more favourably disposed towards extending economic as well as military aid to the non-Communist governments in South-East Asia, although one can see that the American statesmen have not finally and completely made up their mind in this matter.

Those who have been observing the treads of American foreign policy have noted that this is the one serious defect with that policy. Her authoritative spokesmen do not seem to know their own mind. They speak with more than one voice. They look like novices in the art of diplomacy. Outsiders find it hard to know exactly what they propose to do. Unless they abandon this attitude of hesitation and wavering and adopt a policy which is thoroughly positive and definite–however risky it might be–there will be no chance whatever of South-East Asia achieving political and economic stability under American leadership. It looks as if the Americans are unwilling give up their tradition of isolation. If in the field of diplomacy the British and Russians are able to achieve much, it is primarily due to the clearness with which they have been able to define their objectives and the determination with which they pursue them.

The establishment of Communism in China has been responsible for the transfer of power by the Dutch to the Indonesian Republic. The struggle that had been going on for four years came to an end. If the Dutch had seen the wisdom of this transfer three years ago and if the Americans had adopted a more straightforward policy in this matter and brought earlier their influence to bear on the Dutch in the direction of Indonesian freedom, the Republic would have achieved stability by this time and this would have strengthened considerably the forces opposed to Communism in this area. One should now console oneself with the idea that it is better late than never. Indonesia with its seventy million people has at last become free. The three hundred years rule of the Dutch has come to an end. And although there are still some matters at issue between the Dutch and the Indonesian Republic, and although they may lead to friction there is now no longer any danger of Dutch imperialism being re-established in this area. If at all there is a conflict it will be a conflict between the national government based on liberal democracy as led by Dr. Hatta, and the Communist and other fanatical sections of the people.

The meeting of the Commonwealth Foreign Ministers at Colombo in January is also to be attributed to the establishment of the Communist regime in China. It would, however, be a mistake to look at the conference as one convened only to arrest Communism in South- East Asia. Its aims were far more comprehensive. To all the members of the Commonwealth, stability in South-East Asia is a matter of primary interest. It is of interest not only to India, Ceylon and Pakistan, which are in the immediate neighbourhood of this area, but also to Australia and New Zealand and England. Any unrest of a serious character here will interfere with communications between England on one side and Australia and New Zealand on the other. Concerted action, therefore, on the part of the Commonwealth States to put an end to unrest and create conditions of stability in this region is a matter of paramount importance. And it was for mutual consultation on this subject that the conference was held. There was a frank and free discussion on all the connected issues. Pandit Nehru made it clear that stability in South-East Asia could not be achieved merely by improving the economic condition of the people there, although this was an essential step. According to him it would be necessary to put an end to Colonial rule and grant freedom to the various nationalities in the area. Unless Indo-China and Malaya became free the unrest there would continue. This is the question that has to be immediately solved. As long as it is left unsolved the revolutionary forces inside these countries would look to China or Russia for help. If this is to be averted, European imperialism in Asia should come to an end. The conference was not intended to arrive at any clear-cut decisions. But all the States of the Commonwealth understood each other’s point of view, and there is a fair prospect of some concerted action being taken to put an end to the unrest in this part of the world. The Australian proposal to set up a permanent committee at Canberra for more frequent consultation was welcomed. And some of the member States agreed to lend economic to Burma with a view to have peace and order completely re-established in that State.

Both at the time of the Colombo Conference and subsequently the question has been asked what, after all, is the nature, purpose and utility of the Commonwealth, and it must be confessed that no satisfactory answer is forthcoming for it. To some it looks like a regional Pact like the Pan-American Union and the Arab League. To others it is merely an arrangement under which some of the independent States of the world consult each other on various questions of the day without undertaking any responsibilities or commitments. Though there is no doubt that international conferences do occasionally serve some useful purpose, the time has come for us all to squarely face the question whether this Commonwealth has in present form (or lack of form) any use at all and whether anything will be lost by its being wound up. This question becomes all the more urgent and important when it is found that inside the Commonwealth the relations between some members like India and Pakistan are on the verge of war and those between South Africa and India are nearly so. It is, therefore, incumbent on Indian leaders to clear up these issues. One should be in a position to know definitely the implications of India's membership of the Commonwealth are, the obligations it creates and the rights which it confers. If it is argued that members are sovereign states and, therefore, they are not under any special obligations except those which they voluntarily assume, it only shows that the Commonwealth has no utility and nobody will be the loser if it is scrapped. If Australia and New Zealand continue to look more to the United States for help in maintaining their defence and security, and if South Africa declares herself to be a Republic and pursues its narrow racial policies, the Commonwealth will become a mere shadowy entity. Of the Holy Roman Empire it used to be said that it was neither Holy, nor Roman, nor Empire. And if there is not much in common between members of Commonwealth–common in the shape of rights or obligations–either something of substance in common has to be created or the organisation dissolved.

The issues with which the world will be faced in consequence of the awakening of China and the close alliance between China and Soviet Russia are of a highly momentous and complicated character It looks as if the White Australia policy will be put to a severe test in the near future. The Chinese have always  been overflowing into the neighbouring lands. Will they allow the Australian continent to remain vacant? The period of European asscendancy is over. Asia is entering on a new epoch of her history. There is bound to be a new movement of peoples on a large scale. This is sure to result in a new clash for the vacant spaces of the earth–claims like those set up by the small racial minority of the whites in South Africa, or the whites of Australia, will be put to severe test. There is no knowing what the outcome of this all will be. If really the idea of One World is to become a reality, distinctions based on race and colour are bouud to disappear. A new humanity is destined to be born out of a mixture of all the races of the world. What happened in South America when the white Spanish and Portuguese colonists Intermarried with the indigenous peoples is destined to happen in other parts of the world also. Whether all this will come about peacefully or through a clash of arms, is the only question which the future has to face.

Looking at the course of events today one will have no hesitation in saying that the clash of arms is the method which is being attempted by the so-called great powers–the United States and Soviet Russia. The former has announced that it is producing the Hydrogen bomb whose powers of destruction are incalculable. There has also been an announcement that Russia is now producing large numbers of atom bombs. Pacifists are calling upon the two countries to come to an amicable understanding regarding the production and use of the new weapons of destruction. But have men in power ever listened to idealists? Pacifism has been preached for ages. All the great prophets spoke of peace, and in terms of peace. They have not, however, succeeded in converting men in power to their view. And it doesn’t look likely that they will succeed now in a matter in regard to which all their greater predecessors had failed. President Truman has his own views regarding international control of atomic energy. Premier Stalin has his own views of it. There is no common ground between them Each is attempting to strengthen himself with a view to destroy the other and establish his own point of view over the whole world.

This is what is being done for instance in countries like Poland, Hungary and Bulgaria under the influence of Soviet Russia. The last three months have seen a number of political trials in these countries. Several have been punished on charges of treason and espionage. This is being done with a view to eliminate all opposition to Communism which, in practice, means all opposition to Soviet Russia. It is now the deliberate policy of the Russian leaders to cut off all connection between these satellite States and the Western world, to make the iron curtain still more of a reality than what it was all along. The outside world should know nothing of what is taking place behind the curtain, and the people here should rely only on Soviet leaders for light and guidance and should not think of learning anything from the rest of humanity. A Russian becomes the commander of Polish armies. Bulgaria compels the United States to break all diplomatic relations with her. Hungary extorts confessions from British citizens residing within its jurisdiction and sentences them to long terms of imprisonment on charges of espionage. Soviet Russia renews the blockade of Berlin. There is no prospect of the foreign ministers holding a conference to settle the terms of treaty with Austria. Because Russia is not disposed to evacuate the territory in her occupation, the other powers are unwilling to withdraw their forces. The war is among the cats, but it is the mice that suffer. The smaller nations are becoming more and more the pawns in the game which two bigger powers are playing.

The answer of the United States to the Soviet moves is to enter into military pacts with the west European powers. As a result of this she has agreed to import into the countries of Western Europe–England, France, Holland and Belgium etc.–millions of dollars worth of arms. France is to get the largest share in them. The Marshall Plan, which started originally for extending economic aid to West Europe, has now become transformed into a plan for military aid. There is of course, nothing surprising in this in a world where disputes between States have to be settled ultimately by resort to war. West Europe is becoming a vast armed camp. It is now the belief in American circles that it is only by gaining and maintaining their superiority in arms that they will be in a position to put an end to aggressive designs of Russia and maintain world peace.

During this quarter three important general elections have been fought. In New Zealand, in Australia as well as in Britain, there was a straight fight between Labour and other parties. In the first two countries Labour has lost its majorities while in Britain the election resulted in practically a sort of stalemate. The only inference that can be drawn from these elections is that even the working classes in these countries are not completely in favour of immediate socialisation. They want their governments to proceed a little more slowly and cautiously in these matters. It is one thing to argue intellectually and philosophically in favour of Socialism and Communism. The logic behind the argument may even be flawless. But it doesn’t mean that what is logically sound is also practicable, that everything that is intellectually grasped can become a workable proposition. Progress therefore, has to come about by slow and evolutionary means. Revolution brings its own evils. It is the middle course that appears to be the wisest course, although there is no guarantee that man, imperfect as he is, will follow the wisest course.